Alshabab are on the run, from Central Somali and the Ahlu Suna Waljamacah the Sufi group army is hot on their heels.
"We have surrounded them on all sides," said on of the Fighters´ Chief "The only option for them is to run toward Southern Somalia because they still in Control of Lower Juba and Lower Shabele."
That would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. Until recently, most analysts and even Somali leaders had viewed the conflict as a no-win situation.
Now, many of the same observers say that the Alshabab have been rendered toothless, and their bloodshed is near an end.
That would mean most of Somalis view Alshabab as the enemy of peace in Somalia, they have lost the support of the ordinary Somali clan chiefs and the Somali people. The International community , the Somali Government — which had all these years watched helplessly as the Shabab took control of a large swathe of territory specially in Central and southern Somalia and ran a parallel administration — would run across Central Somalia.
The latest round of fighting in Central Somalia in near Wabho, the Galgadud region between Ahlu Suna wal Jamecah and Shabab fighter marks a dramatic turnaround in fight against Shabab.
Shabab have lost several key cities in the past including Dhusamreeb. Ceelbuur District was the only remaining stronghold of the group, but Sufi Ahlu SUna Waljama forces have boxed them in there.
Notably, the Shabab´s elusive cult leader, the ABU Mansur Known As Robow, 54, who introduced deadly suicide bombings into the terrorists´ armory, still in Control some territory in Southern Somalia.
How did the Sufi the Ahlu Suna WalJamacah turn the tables on the Shabab, once considered invincible? And is this really the end of a terrorist group that has in the past managed to regroup and return with all guns blazing after the Ethiopian withdrawal was coming?
"There´s no question that the end of Shabab is near," said retired Somali officer Hassan Dirie, who served in Somali Army during Somalia and Ethiopian war in the late 1970s. Islamic courts mission was to restore peace IN Somalia and fight against Ethiopians but they ended up fighting against the Islamic courts with same leader who is now the present of Somalia instead.
"This is a defeat," he said, noting that the Shabab has been the only rebel group in the Somalia that had an loyal army of youth, who will do every thing for them.
"Much of the credit for driving the Shabab out of most of the central regions and cornering them in Southern Somalia is reserved for the Somali people who see them that they are not serving their interest of living in peace. he said "
The AlShabab is a hindrance and impediment to any Somali political solution. As long as the Shabab and others are there, everyone said to Somali government ´talk to the Shabab and others, though the Shabab were never interested in talks.
There is no possibility that the Shabab would lay down arms and join the government. On the other hand, Shabab was responsible for the deaths of ´hundreds of´ of Somali civilians they bombed and the communities would never forgive him for the crime, they committed.
Indeed, the Somalis, who once considered the Shababs as their saviors, now regarded them as the biggest hindrance to peace.
They are losing territory and whatever support they had of the Somali people.
Most of the Somali living in Mogadishu and other cities say that if reports about Shababs fleeing from Central regions are true, that would be the end of the Shabab.
Andi Farah who is Somali Business man Shabab leaders did not groom anyone to succeed Them," he said. "In fact, they eliminated anyone they thought was a potential challenge to their leadership."
He said the Shabab would still fight and still strong in Southern Somalia but the the fact is that they lost the support of one of their main supporters the Hawiye clan. that means they will disintegrate and that its cadres would resort to anti-social activities, like kidnapping, extortion and other crimes, for money to maintain the lifestyle they had gotten used to.
According to former Somali colonel Hassey Ali , there is only 1,000 Shabab forces with left and they are confined to a Baidhaba, Kismayo earea area in Southern Somalia.
All in all, with the Shabab on the retreat, analysts say the Somali government has its task to aid the Sufis and cut out to resolve the Shabab problem permanently.
President Shikh Sharif told Somali community who gathered to listen him while visiting Uganda last Saturday that while his government would deal with terrorism firmly, it is equally firmly committed to finding a negotiated political solution to the ´problems of Somalia.
Source: American Chronicle
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