By Fatuma Noor
AL-Shabaab could have left its bases in Southern Somalia, but does it mean the end of the group or simply a change of tactic?
Whatever the case, the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) should not rejoice at what could be a temporary setback.
Initially, al-Shabaab filled a vacuum many residents needed after years of fighting by competing with warlords. For Somalis, the militia group presented a sense of hope that the decades-long war would be at an end.
The fact the militia managed to get control of large swathes of the country and push back the powerful US-backed Ethiopian army was something of an inspiration which saw many young people from European capitals flocking to Somalia to join the militia.
Their military strikes and successes won the hearts and mind of the majority of the people. However, when the extremist faction introduced Sharia laws, the group lost much support. Al-Shabaab has since been riven by leadership wrangles and ideological disputes which have weakened it.
As it tries to regroup, there are those who see al-Shabaab's recent decision to allow aid agencies to operate in Somalia as just another way of winning over people who have become disenchanted.
It could also be an indication that moderate factions have gained ascendancy and are not interested in pursuing Sharia law. If they have, it is clear that the group can recover the support of the people.
Another option is for the group to wait for current president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, former head of the Islamic Courts, to finish his term, as all indications are he is unlikely to be re-elected.
He struck a deal with the speaker of the parliament, Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden, to delay the elections, after they both agreed to dismiss prime minister Mohammed Abdullahi Mohammed so that the speaker could bring more allies into government positions.
Al-Shabaab needs to bring in its own candidates or sponsor sympathetic candidates and make sure no leaders would be foisted on Somalia. If so, it could gain power.
This would mean a possible deal being struck between moderate al-Shabaab factions and some government leaders to form a loose coalition which could mark the start of some peace in Somalia, although the short term still remains bleak.
The TFG, formed from the western-backed Djibouti Accord which was designed to sideline al-Shabaab, remains unpopular in Somalia amid claims of corruption and infighting.
If al-Shabaab can reconcile its own internal divisions, it may just be able to fill the gap left in leadership.
Source: The Scotsman
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