By Ismail D. Osman
analysis
As the term of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government comes to an end this August, there is hope that the new political dispensation will bear positive outcomes. However, a political squabble between President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Prime Minister Abdiweli Mohamed Ali is likely, as both men will contend for the presidency once the TFG's term ends.
This, in the view of many Somali political analysts, may make the internal Somali political process bumpier than envisaged in The Roadmap and reiterated at the recently concluded, London Conference on Somalia at Lancaster House on February 23.
In an interview with the Toronto Star, Sharif Sheikh Ahmed has publicly declared his intention to run for the presidency of Somalia. Similarly, Abdiweli Mohamed Ali has put together a team that will manage his campaign, including cabinet ministers. With each man vying to become the next president of Somalia, each will try to ensure that potential members of parliament are loyal to their respective sides. Not only that, but each will try to influence the Interim Independent Electoral Commission.
This political squabble, if it comes to fruition, will undermine any political stability in Mogadishu and will serve as a catalyst for Al-Shabaab to regroup. As reported by Reuters "their (Al Shabaab's) fate depends on internal political struggles that have little to do with the West's fight against militancy or even with the multinational drive against pirate communities believed to have tactical tie-ups with some in the insurgency."
For a post-transitional period to be effective, the Somali people must own the process. Dissenting voices must be heard. One of the reasons that it is important to create a public culture of dissent is that this allows issues to be debated. Young people, in particular, must be allowed to air their views, and should not be held hostage by the traditional elders, who have so far proved to be ineffective in bringing about stability in Somalia. Greater involvement of youth in the political process could also diminish the influence of Al Shabaab, which has branded itself as an Islamic movement led by youth.
In that context, the Kampala Accord, and subsequent conferences that resulted in the current Roadmap, which was hailed as success by the United Nations, was never a Somali-owned processes. From a Somali perspective, these developments are viewed as an imposition of a political process by the international community.
Furthermore, it is not even possible to meet the benchmarks laid out in The Roadmap before the transitional period ends. The Roadmap signed in Mogadishu on September 6, 2011, clearly sets a timeline for appointment of members to the Interim Independent Electoral Commission by September 19, 2011, in order to prepare for upcoming elections. Already, we are in March 2012 and the selection of the IIEC has not yet started.
The Roadmap called for the reform of the Transitional Federal Parliament to begin by September 19, 2011 and completed by 19 November 2011. It also requires a report on TFG revenues and expenditure by January 20, 2012 and a National Fiscal Budget by December 31, 2011. None of these have been achieved.
Dr. Ken Menkhaus of Davidson College, in an interview with Reuters said ,"This much accelerated end of the transition process is going to face a lot of very critical decisions about representation and ultimately about who rules. That will create unhappiness and some of the Somalis who are unhappy will defect (from the process)."
The Garowe II Principles state that the signatories of The Roadmap, assisted by civil society groups and traditional leaders, will select IIEC members. The problem is that there is no interpretation of who will qualify as a member of Somali civil society. Another problem associated with the selection process is that two or more of the signatories to The Roadmap are vying to become Somalia's next president and each will try to influence the outcome of this selection process. One may argue that this will be based on a 4.5 quota system. However, the fact is that in Somalia clan politics is all about individual interests, not clan interests, so this system cannot be relied on to represent the interests of the Somali people.
The author is a political analyst and the current chairman of the Somali National Council based in the United States.
Source: Nairobi Star
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