The recent elections in the breakaway region of Somaliland hold out the hope of progress toward resolving the nearly 20-year-long conflict in Somalia, some US analysts say.
Strengthening Somaliland while also assisting other regional and local oases of peace and good governance, could promote stability throughout Somalia, says Prof Ken Menkhaus, one of the leading Somalia experts in the United States.
These entities could emerge as effective competitors to the TFG, which "is making no effort to earn the sovereignty" conferred upon it by outsiders, he adds.
Jubaland remains a more difficult case, Prof Menkhaus says.
"From a distance and on paper," the concept of an autonomous Jubaland "looks like a really good idea," he observes.
The region features "a certain amount of ethnic homogeneity" and is also a well defined geographic area, Prof Menkhaus says.
In addition, "the whole region is a satellite of the Kenyan economy."
From a strategic point of view, Prof Menkhaus continues, "I understand why Kenya is interested in having Jubaland as a buffer zone."
He notes, however, that every time the notion of an autonomous Jubaland has been floated, the clans in the region "have never been able to agree on allocation of resources and power in Kismayo."
Shabaab also remains a powerful presence in Jubaland.
It would have to be defeated as a precondition to establishing Jubaland as a stable region on Kenya's border, the US analysts all point out.
In a vote that international observers described as free and fair, the polls demonstrated to a world audience how profoundly Somaliland differs from much of Somalia.
The northwestern area, which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, has remained comparatively stable even as much of the country descended into seemingly intractable strife.
Depending on how the losers react to the outcome of the three-party contest, Somaliland might move to co-operate with Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and possibly with the autonomous Puntland region in fighting against Islamist insurgents, one US expert on Somalia suggests.
"A number of people in Mogadishu and Hargeisa want to bridge the gap," this analyst says, referring to authorities in the respective capitals of Somalia and Somaliland.
Many outside interests would welcome such a development, adds this source, who does not want to be identified because he works in an official capacity in Washington.
The United States as well as countries in the Horn generally believe that such a coalition could have positive effects on trade and economic issues while also playing a potentially decisive strategic role, the analyst suggests.
He says that in addition to weakening Al Shabaab, the main Islamist insurgency in Somalia, a coalition involving Puntland could roll back the plague of piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.
But other experts are sceptical about the prospects of forming such a coalition.
Bronwyn Bruton, author of a recent report on Somalia by a prestigious New York-based NGO, cautions that a smooth outcome of the Somaliland voting is far from assured.
Ms Bruton also sees little reason to assume that the TFG would co-operate with Somaliland and Puntland.
"They aren't willing to deal with anyone they see as threats," she says in regard to the TFG's leaders.
Somaliland, Puntland and Somalia are, at this point, "three different countries," Ms Bruton observes.
Somaliland and Puntland also "aren't the best of friends," she points out, adding that while those two entities might form "a bulwark against the spread of disorder into the north," they are unlikely to get involved militarily in central and southern Somalia.
Regardless of whether Somaliland enters into a more co-operative relationship with the TFG, it deserves greater support from the international community, US-based analysts argue.Calling Somaliland "a special case," Prof Menkhaussays "we should do all we can to reinforce its success."
Greater support for Somaliland need not take the form of international recognition of its nationhood, Prof Menkhaus says.
"A lot of governments in the Middle East and Africa are justifiably nervous" about the prospect of a fully independent Somaliland, he notes.
Somalilanders advancing that cause are perceived as members of a secessionist movement, and the breakup of states frightens the African Union and most of its members, US analysts point out.
Recognition of Somaliland by other nations would also make the territory "a major target for a destabilisation campaign," Prof Menkhaus continues.
Al Shabaab strongly opposes Somaliland even in its current unrecognised status -- not least because of the region's close ties to Ethiopia, the arch-enemy of Somalia's Islamist militants.
J. Peter Pham, senior vice president of the National Committee on American Foreign Policy and a longtime advocate of US support for Somaliland, acknowledges that "recognition, however deserved, will not be immediate."
"What I do expect, however," Prof Pham adds, "is increasing international engagement on top of existing relations and, in the intermediate term, the carving out of an interim international status for Somaliland that would permit it access to international multilateral institutions without explicitly conferring full recognition."
The Somali people have made clear they do not favour a unitary state, Prof Pham says.
"One can honestly say that there is already a partition and Somalis are decided on it themselves," he declares.
Source: AllAfrica.com
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