As the situation in Somalia worsens, the international community is set to at least discuss how to prevent the East African nation's continued descent into chaos.
Next week, Turkey and the United Nations will host a conference in Istanbul to chart a course for bolstering the weak, Western-backed Transitional Federal Government and combating the al-Qaida-linked Islamist group al-Shabaab, which controls large chunks of the country.
The meeting comes amid reports of not only continued piracy on the Somalian coast but also rising recruitment of child soldiers. According to the U.N.'s refugee agency, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, around 200,000 Somalis have left their homes this year alone because of increasing violence in central and southern Somalia. Some 550,000 Somalis have fled the country for neighboring nations, and another 1.4 million are displaced within Somalia itself.
"If we do not make the right commitments and take the right action in Somalia now, the situation will, sooner or later, force us to act and at a much higher price," Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, the top U.N. official on Somalia, told the Security Council.
Currently the Western-backed government controls only a few blocks of the Somali capital, Mogadishu, with al-Shabaab as the strongest of the groups arrayed against it.
The international community cannot wish Somalia away because of the danger posed by piracy and al-Shabaab's links to al-Qaida. The U.S. has no intention of putting troops on the ground -- its last direct intervention in the early 1990s ended in chaos -- and after Ethiopian troops were driven out in 2007, no one else does either. That leaves an underfunded and underpowered U.N. to struggle to find a political solution.
"The [Somali government] needs to keep reaching out and bring more Somali groups under the reconciliation umbrella," said B. Lynn Pascoe, the U.N.'s political affairs chief. "Those refusing to participate should take up the government's offer of peace."
While moderate groups may respond to such offers, experts point out that al-Shabaab has no incentive to make peace. The extremist militia is widely despised among the population for its application of a brutal version of Sharia law, leading to floggings, punitive amputations and bans on music.
But a frontal attack of foreigners against al-Shabaab is no answer, analysts agree. "Let the local dynamics play out. They are likely to collapse on their own," said Bronwyn Bruton, a Somalia expert at the Council for Foreign Relations, who suggested that such a "constructive disengagement" would not make Somalia any more dangerous. "If al-Qaida wants to come in, it can do so even now."
Not much has changed for Somalia since 1991 when the country's dictator, Mohamed Siad Barre, was ousted by local warlords. Two decades of infighting and drought has unleashed one of the world's worst humanitarian crises.
At this stage, however, analysts caution against excessive interference in an increasingly volatile situation. John Hirsch, who teaches at Columbia University and has worked in Somalia as part of his tenure in the U.S. Foreign Service, warned against regional meddling.
In 2006, U.S.-backed Ethiopian troops fought the Union of Islamic Courts government that had brought in a semblance of peace but was shielding al-Qaida operatives. "It leads to more instability," said Hirsch. "Putting more troops or weapons on the ground is not going to lead to a durable peace."
Several groups insist that no political solution can work unless the root causes of Somalia's instability are addressed. By inviting private companies like Coca-Cola, international business investors and Somali business leaders, the Istanbul conference hopes to get a dialogue started on reviving the country's economy.
"This is crucial to create employment and generate revenue," said Ertugrul Apakan, Turkey's U.N. envoy. "It will also boost local business, lead to social and economic development and contribute to the peace process."
The conference will also deal with the growing problem of piracy, especially on how to bring the culprits to court. Last month, the U.N. Security Council asked Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon to work out possible options on pirate trials.
The U.N. has set aside $2.1 million worth of piracy prosecution projects, but overall funding to take care of Somalia is running out. The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has appealed for an additional $60 million to settle the rapidly growing number of refugees within Somalia and four neighboring countries. The UNHCR has received only 36 percent of the $424 million it needs for Somalia in 2010.
"The displacement crisis is worsening with the deterioration of the situation inside Somalia, and we need to prepare fast for new and possibly large-scale displacement," said T. Alexander Aleinikoff, the U.N.'s deputy high commissioner for refugees.
Meanwhile, the intensifying conflict has caused an explosion in the recruitment of child soldiers. Children are being kidnapped from refugee camps in Kenya, by both government forces and al-Shabaab, to fight in Somalia. The number of children forced into fighting in Somalia is much higher than in Afghanistan, according to Radhika Coomaraswamy, the top U.N. official for child protection.
In March, for instance, 600 children took up arms in Somalia. While al-Shabaab and other opposition forces are harder to rein in, the U.N. plans to use its influence on the weak government to stop using children.
"The first step is to make sure the government forces fall in line," said Coomaraswamy.
Source: aolnews
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