Mohammed Omar, an authority on Somalia, describes al-Shabab's rise to power and why it poses a threat not only to Somalia, but to regions across Africa, including the Maghreb.
In light of the recent hijacking of the Tunisian-owned merchant vessel Hannibal II, Maghreb residents are increasingly concerned about the growing danger of Somalia's instability. To shed light on the situation, Magharebia spoke to Somali political analyst Mohammed Omar in Mogadishu. He tells the story behind the radical jihadi group al-Shabab and reveals the movement's ties to international terrorists. As a keen observer of the violent events that have rocked Somalia in recent years, Omar has a deep understanding of the country's history and why it matters to the rest of Africa. He explains that the terrorist group imposes its radical ideology on the population by force and maintains little support among Somalis. Omar also provides a breakdown on the rise of Salafist groups and the links between al-Shabab and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.
Magharebia: Can you describe for us the origins of al-Shabab?
Mohammed Omar: It's difficult to specify a certain time and say that the movement appeared at it, as its foundation has been a gradual process. In 1997, the Salafist al-Ittihad al-Islami group declared that it would relinquish its armed approach and would turn into a dawa (preaching) group. That decision angered some of the low-level leaders who didn't like it and who insisted on their armed approach.
After September 11th, the possibility that Somalia would be a target for a US attack increased; something that mobilised those young leaders to establish the movement, which soon had training bases in the Somali capital, which was controlled by warlords supported by external regional and international entities.
Magharebia: What is the relationship between al-Shabab and al-Qaeda in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM)?
Omar: There's certainly co-operation between al-Qaeda and al-Shabab, as evidenced by the statements made by the two sides. Al-Shabab says that it is a part of al-Qaeda and boasts about its affiliation to Osama bin Laden, and al-Qaeda issues statements that support al-Shabab and gives them pieces of advice, as al-Zawahri and Abu Yahya al-Libi usually do.
With the progress of training activities, it is believed that communication links between the group and the international al-Qaeda organisation started to increase. Foreign elements started to flow to Somalia. In the meantime, al-Shabab was accused of carrying out assassinations against some secular figures and some of the Somali army officers who were accused of espionage. This has led the warlords to declare war on the group under the umbrella of the "anti-terror war".
Magharebia: Is al-Shabab composed of only Somali citizens or are they receiving support from other regions?
Omar: It's clear that the group doesn't consist of Somali elements alone; rather, there are foreigners from different countries. However, it is difficult to estimate their number; some say their number is more than 1,000, while others dismiss that number, but estimates show that their number was not less than a few hundred.
Magharebia: How does the Somali street view them?
Omar: The Somali street differs in its view of al-Shabab movement. However, the overall view seems to be negative since the group didn't come with the consent of the people and doesn't express the aspirations of the Somali people who long for the establishment of security and stability, creation of a state of institutions, and activation of national reconciliation as the basis for establishing an effective state. The second factor that makes people's view of that group a negative one is the presence of foreigners who take part in charting the group's policies. The group doesn't express the hopes of the Somali people. Another factor is their adoption of a bloody approach on the domestic level and aggressive policy towards neighbouring countries.
Magharebia: There were a number of terrorist attacks carried out by al-Shabab in African countries. Do such operations mean that this movement has moved from the local Somali problem to an international one?
Omar: Yes, there are operations carried out by al-Shabab in several countries, such as the Kampala bombings in which 70 people were killed, and which al-Shabab claimed responsibility for. Currently, there are increasing consultations among neighbouring countries to ward off the threats of al-Shabab in the region. Both Uganda and Burundi, which have forces in Somalia, are calling for sending troops to Somalia to fight al-Shabab as part of the war on al-Qaeda all over the world.
Magharebia: Is there any relationship between al-Shabab and maritime piracy, such as the hijacking of the Tunisian cargo ship Hannibal II?
Omar: It's widely believed that al-Shabab is not actually engaged in piracy, although they are controlling several ports in southern Somalia. They are accused of turning a blind eye to the pirates in the areas under their influence, perhaps because they believe that Western countries are the most affected parties in these operations. International forces arrest gangs of pirates every day, but no charges are made against any of them of belonging to al-Shabab; something that dismisses any links between al-Shabab and piracy.
Magharebia: How do they finance their operations?
Omar: As far as financing is concerned, outside observers can't give their opinions about it. However, we can just say that the enormity of operations that al-Shabab is carrying out and the vast areas of land they are controlling require large-scale financing. If the link between the parent organisation and al-Shabab is confirmed, then there must be some sort of financing.
Magharebia: How do you see the future of this group in the near term?
Omar: Most analysts believe that the chances of survival for al-Shabab may wane due to the factors I cited above - their project doesn't stem from the Somali people's priorities, presence of foreign agenda, the area they control is ruled by force, etc. Most analysts make this conclusion. They also talk about the forces that will benefit from the group's disappearance.
Source: Magharebia.com
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