Having ruled out military intervention to end civilian carnage in Somalia, Kenya is bracing for confrontation with Islamist insurgents in the war-ravaged Horn of Africa nation that has not known peace for two decades.
Even as Al-Shabaab warned of felling Nairobi’s skyscrapers in retaliation if Kenya heeds calls by President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed of the interim Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to frontline States to send in troops to repulse militia groups that are increasingly gaining an upper hand over the government’s forces and African Union peacekeepers, intelligence in the hands of the Government show Nairobi is on the orbit of foreign insurgents.
Asked to shade light on the country’s fears of a looming strike by Somali gangs, which enjoy the support of Osama bin Laden’s al Qaeda, a senior Criminal Investigations Department (CID) officer put a damper on Government’s insistence it has the capacity to detect and prevent external attacks on its territory.
Tampered elections
"This is the same Government that was warned long before it occurred that the country would erupt into violence if the State tampered with presidential election. We have been feeding the State with intelligence about the risks of the lawlessness in Somalia spilling into Kenya. The inertia that preceded post-election violence is again manifesting," said the officer who preferred anonymity.
The officer noted a number of businesspeople, among them a wife of a Cabinet minister, have been placed under surveillance for their roles in disposal of prime properties in Nairobi and Mombasa. Contrary to the scenario in 1998 when the terrorists who bombed Nairobi were said to have resided in low-income and middle-income neighbourhoods, this time round the aliens are buying property and settling in upmarket residential estates. In Nairobi, the officer, who has vast experience investigating international money laundering, said Westlands, Parklands and Gigiri residential areas are favourite destinations, while beachfront property at the Coast are being purchased by Somali businesspeople.
Although the political turmoil has been going on in Somalia since 1991 when President Siad Barre was deposed, Kenya has opted to be non-partisan. It is bound by the Inter-Governmental Agreement on Development (Igad) protocol that bars frontline states from any form of intervention except mediation.
As official rhetoric against the Islamists hardens, International Crisis Group, which has a presence in Somalia, warns in its latest assessment of the situation, "Another possible threat which Kenya needs to weigh is the direct security implications stemming from such an intervention. Al-Shabaab’s threat to strike Kenya, which could reasonably be dismissed as bravado, may become real. Al-Shabaab has honed its terror tactics and skills in recent years and is now by far the deadliest guerrilla movement operating in the Horn."
After Islamist militants killed Security Minister Omar Hashi — a key figure in the regime’s military counter-offensive against Al-Shabaab, which came as another shocking reminder of the group’s capacity to undermine the interim government, an MP and police chief last week in Somalia, and with fighting intensifying in the capital Mogadishu, security along the border has been beefed up even as Al-Shabaab issued threats of imminent strikes on Kenyan territory.
Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Foreign Minister Moses Wetang’ula issued strong-worded statements, signalling a dramatic shift in the country’s dealings with its northern neighbour.
Three-hour meeting
As the Government worried over the latest developments in Somalia, President Kibaki and Raila held a three-hour long meeting on Wednesday with the countries security chiefs to strategise on how to deal with the external threat.
However, MPs from North-Eastern Province, which borders Somalia, are apprehensive that any military action is fraught with serious consequences, as it would open fronts for foreign invasion.
Nominated MP Mohammed Affey, who was Kenya’s ambassador to Somalia for five years until 2007, says the conflict lacks definite form and it would be disastrous for neighbouring states — Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Djibouti — to yield to TFG’s calls to deploy soldiers in the war-torn state.
"In a conventional war, protagonists have divergent opinion and try to defend them. The war is not religious, ideological or socio-economic. It lacks form and if Kenya were to send in troops, it would be ill-advised because who would they be fighting?" Affey said.
Adding: "Our troops would be killed because the enemy is not known. The African peacekeepers from Uganda and Burundi already in the country are perceived as forces of occupation and struggling to fend off the perception."
National security
Although Raila did not say in certain terms if Kenya would deploy troops inside Somalia, his remarks come on the back of Wetang’ula’s warning to Somali rebels that Nairobi would not compromise national security by allowing militiamen to make incursions on its territory.
"Kenya should be conscious of its strategic interests in Somalia. Somalis placed their fate in Kenya and hoped the latter would enable them to overcome years of turbulence and socio-economic stagnation," Affey says.
Earlier, Defence Assistant Minister Joseph Nkaissery told The Standard on Sunday the country could no longer afford to be indifferent to insecurity in Somalia and other neighbouring countries. Especially Somalia, he said, Kenya should be able strike back to keep the militants in check.
The International Crisis Group, a humanitarian organisation, reported insecurity in Somalia had escalated as Al-Qaeda militants relocate to the Horn of Africa.
"The massive wave of dislocation, most acute in Mogadishu, is aggravating the country’s humanitarian crisis and straining aid agencies’ ability to deliver assistance. And, according to reports, Al-Qaeda fighters have begun to leave Pakistan for Somalia because of the opportunities for Jihad," said International Crisis Group in a report released recently.
Source: The Standard (eastandard.net)
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