In late January, Ethiopia withdrew its last soldiers from Somalia after more than two years of bloody occupation and insurgency. Their departure immediately catalyzed a dramatic chain of events. The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) that had been backed by Ethiopia, the U.S. and the U.N. fled to Djibouti and, in apparent desperation, signed a peace deal with an alliance of moderate Islamists. As part of the deal, the TFG welcomed hundreds of alliance representatives into a newly-expanded parliament.
The African Union declared the peace deal a "paradigm shift that gives Somalis a chance for lasting peace and reconciliation."
The enlarged parliament wasted no time electing a new president to fill the position left vacant by ailing former warlord Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed when he stepped down in December. The new president, Shariff Sheik Ahmed, is a former member of the Islamic Courts Union, the group whose rise had provoked the Ethiopian invasion in late 2006.
Sheikh Ahmed promptly flew to Mogadishu with his ministers and opened negotiations with insurgent groups. "The main objective of the day-to-day clashes in the capital was the presence of the Ethiopian troops in the country, and once they have completely pulled out I thought no more blood will be shed," Sheikh Ahmed said.
Hizbul Islam, one of several armed organizations that had bloodily resisted the Ethiopian occupation, agreed with Sheikh Ahmed's assessment. Last week in Mogadishu, Hizbul Islam signed a peace agreement with the Transitional Federal Government. In exchange, Sheikh Ahmed promised to enforce Shariah law. But it's unclear whether Sheikh Ahmed will be successful in forging a similar compromise with the larger, more aggressive al-Shabab armed group, which already enforces a harsh version of Shariah in many parts of Somalia, even forbidding men and women to ride together in cars.
If anyone can do it, though, it's Sheikh Ahmed. Before his election, the president had emerged as a powerful moderate voice in Islamic circles. His election in January raised hopes for a peaceful resolution of fighting that has killed tens of thousands of Somalis and foreign troops and displaced hundreds of thousands. Clerics stepped forward, offering to help mediate a peace deal between the Transitional Federal Government and the remaining Islamic insurgent groups.
It wasn't clear at first whether Sheikh Ahmed could make good on this promise. "Sheik Ahmed has got a huge task," said Martin Murphy, an analyst with the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. Most importantly, Murphy added, "it's not clear who his allies are."
Last week's progress proved that Sheikh Ahmed's new government isn't just empty rhetoric. But to a great extent, Murphy's fears are still valid. Clan loyalty is the strongest force in Somali politics. Former president Yusuf never managed to build meaningful alliances outside his own clan; to bring lasting peace to Somalia, Sheikh Ahmed will need to command loyalty across clan lines, for years.
Al-Shabab poses the biggest and most immediate obstacle. With the Ethiopians' withdrawal, al-Shabab promised to target the 3,500-strong African Union peacekeeping force holding Mogadishu's port and other key sites. Attacks on the AU, which were condemned by the U.N., last week killed more than 80 insurgents, soldiers and civilians.
Sheikh Ahmed has invited all groups, including al-Shabab, to bring their grievances to his government. "If at all there are some parts smelling rat, they can openly come to the negotiation table, [for] my government is meant for peace and reconciliation," he said.
Eventually, Sheikh Ahmed will have to address the issue of foreign support for insurgent groups. There is a "huge amount of money coming out of Saudi Arabia" to fund the insurgency, Murphy said. Al-Shabab is just one recipient.
Similarly, Sheikh Ahmed will have to reassure foreign powers that he will prevent the "Talibanization" of Somalia. The U.S. State Department has long suspected Somalia's Islamic groups of harboring al-Qaida operatives. U.S. Special Forces fought alongside the Ethiopians during their 2006 invasion, and U.S. aircraft and warships have launched raids on suspected terrorists in rural Somalia, killing dozens of people.
David Axe is an independent correspondent, a World Politics Review contributing editor, and the author of "War Bots." He blogs at War is Boring. His WPR column, War is Boring, appears every other Wednesday.
Photo: A "technical" in Mogadishu at the time of the UNOSOM mission, 1992-1993 (CT Snow, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 License).
Source: World Politics Review
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