The recent clashes between opposition groups and TFG forces was not a sudden but something that was boiling to the point where it is now, after months of threats and assassination by Ethiopian agents in Mogadishu peace was disappearing by the hour, Sh Sharif has not give much chance to peace. Having been in the ceremonial position for little more than three months, the position which had been the worst and hardest fought presidential seat in any nation on earth, the Sheikh Sharif Ahmed of Somalia now facing the worst challenges in his entire life. Sh Sharif himself has not fought for this position and spent less in terms of man and money, but simply was handed down to him by Ahmed Ould Abdallah the UN envoy for Somalia.
How he got there?
Sh Sharif government is the fruit of one of the disgruntle UN and IGAD and perhaps the outcome of the 14th reconciliation. Previous failed government including Sh Sharif were all the architect by Ethiopians, Kenyans and Djibouti. Though Djibouti wants to balance the influence of Ethiopian-Kenya anti Muslim agendas, but does not have long reach beyond Mogadishu, unlike Ethiopians which enjoy good relationship with Somaliland and Puntland regional government something that Djibouti lost to win over them. Previous government led by Ali Mahdi in early 1990’s and Abdulqasim Salat in early 2000’s were got rid off by Ethiopian supported warlords and did not go beyond Km4 junction in Mogadishu. Ethiopia never tried to have a Somalian government established in its country, but hosted various opposition meetings only, however, its strategy had worked well in Eldoret and Embaghati reconciliation conference which attend about 24 warlords who directly had the support of Meles Zenawi and he easily picked who has to lead the country, and his choice became his long ally Abdullahi Yusuf.
Djibouti walked away from that conference and the conference was idled for over six months because of IGAD conflicts, the walk out of Djibouti and Eritrea. Since then Djibouti never recognized Abdullahi Yusuf government officially and indirectly supported the Islamic Courts Union in order to avenge for its turn against the Ethiopian orchestrated government. When Ethiopians rooted out the ICU, Djibouti never that it can assemble another opposition group and it got what it wanted, it tapped the ICU and former TFG parliamentarians who had clashed with Abdullahi Yusuf’ policy based in Asmara, Eritrea. Djibouti used Ould Abdallah influence to host the conference and offered Asmara based group to relocate in Djibouti, what would have been the dying days of Abdullahi Yusuf. Ethiopia and Mr Yusuf was furious about the Djibouti and Ould Abdallah initiatives and undermined their war against ICU, both had rejected money times the outcome of Djibouti until the US has entered the foray in a 50/50 position one way supporting pro-Ethiopians parliamentarians and another opposing how much would the ICU will take.
Sh Sharif was picked long before the conclusion of Djibouti meeting and was told to salute his sub-master Meles and disassociate himself from opposition group and to soften his stance of Somali peace and reconciliation, as well Ogadenia blights and most importantly Ethiopian crimes committed in Somalia from 2006. He firmly agreed those conditions because had no choice to balance his political needs and demands from the West’s in particular the US.
Yusuf has bagged his bags from Baidoa, the former transitional seat of TNG and he fled to Yemen. The Ethiopians and the US told secretly the speaker of parliament Sheikh Adan Mohamed Nuur to stand for president and ignore the outcome of Djibouti. Few weeks he was calling the parliament to convene for election session in Baidoa not in Djibouti, the pro-Ethiopians were nervous and knew nothing where to head. UN and AL told Sh Adan to head Djibouti and to attend the Arab conference in Kuwait, something that anti-Ethiopian Arab League wants to see Somali politician who can make decision without presence of Ethiopians. Few days later Sh Adan left for Kuwait and met large Arab delegation and was pressed to accept the demand of Ould Abdallah who also was present at the meeting. Sh Adan has been reported that if he accepts the condition his position will be untouched and will be rewarded financially, which he did without hesitating it, putting the Ethiopian pot to boil hotter than before. That was the end of between Ethiopia and Sh Adan era, which they supported him since 1995 when he was member of Rahanwein Resistance Army (RRA), he was their most trusted figure in Somali political theater second to Mohamed Dhere.
He called all pro-Ethiopian MP to head Djibouti to line-up behind Sh Sharif and all went the way Djibouti wanted and Ould waste no time calling the missing and importantly figure like Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, Sheikh Hassan Turki and Sheikh Muqtar Robow (Abu Mansur). Mr Ould made no contact to these politically and militarily important to Somali stability and long term solution to participate the reconciliation because he was heading to the demands of Ethiopians and US since they were on the so-called "US terrorist lists". Even large presidential contenders and attendees surprised who the Djibouti saga was hastily concluded without taking what would be the consequence which is evident today in Mogadishu and the rest of Somalia was the outcome of Djibouti.
Ould Abdallah never visited Mogadishu and south Somali and has no idea how Somali got into this mess and how to get out, he treated the Somali conflict like the Rwanda which is contrary to what the Somali people been living in the past 20 years of the Ethiopian and US horrors.
Where are the things now heading to?
Sh Sharif and his indiscipline TFG forces trained and fed by Ethiopians and CIA has been cornered and they are in their last days. In the last two weeks we have seen the kind of government that Sh Sharif is heading, weak, pro-Ethiopians, liars and murdering and shelling the civilians with the help of so-called AMISOM the US proxy forces in Somali. Sh Sharif gives war orders his military officers who are weary of his style and political approach to the conflict. Some of these military officers work for Ethiopia and had been in the CIA payroll in the last five years.
After they have been run-out by the Opposition, Sh Sharif has been told to consult with pro-Ethiopian warlords such as Muse Sudi, Mohamed Dhere, Salad A Jelle, Qanyare Afrah, Osman Atto, Dabaged, Bare Hiiraale and dozens more. They were fling in from Nairobi and Addis Ababa and held meeting in Mogadishu, and the next day they participated his war against his former allies. He did what he has been told, he now financing these folks to regroup their sub-clan militias to confront the opposition and he also remain silent the arriving Ethiopian forces in Bakool and Hiiraan regions. He has lost all supports from his good friends and the Hawiye elders and Somalis at large, though found new friends in Addis Ababa and Nairobi.
Sh Sharif government led by Omar Abdulrashid Sharmarke is full of pro-Ethiopia and Abdullahi Yusuf group, they are there to undermine his authority which they already maximased his political career. His PM Sharmarke has even joked when the parliament passed the Islamic Sharia, he said "we are not cutting thief’s hands but we will interpret differently" which is contrary to the Islamic Sharia. The people of Somalia dismayed by his PM remarks, the debacle has been continuing in the last few months, the security minister was waging war through the media against the Opposition, the justice minister added his voice calling war and labelling the Opposition as terrorist and accusing regions of Rahanwein and Daroods as terrorist regions and waging war against his Hawiye clan, the foray continued until last minute when the Opposition said enough is enough and encircled the Sharif government.
AMISOM joined the clash and bombarded indiscriminately in the civilian population areas and killing scores of people. There are also reports that they directly participated as they were deployed in KM4 road to African Village. This is contrary to their rubbish mandate which says that they are in there to protect Sh Sharif government and peace-keeping. One would wonder what kind of peace they are keeping, since they are part of the war.
Now there is now opportunity for negotiation, and never been in the last few months, Sh Sharif was busy in foreign capitals while Ethiopian agents was dismantling his government, when settle in after he won few million dollar hard fought cash from EU and AL, he came to face the music, money only not man, similar to what Abdulqasim Salat happen. His forces are disappearing in daily basis, he has been made by false promises by pro-Ethiopian agents by providing troops to weight in the threats of Opposition, however, they just sucked his money and simply disappeared, catch me if you can!
Ethiopians now arming the warlords in border of Hiiran, Gedo and Bakool and it wants them to overtake the towns controlled by Opposition group and later on to press Sh Sharif to give up his position since he does not control any more territory.
What is best option for him now?
Abdulqasim had done it what I am proposing he took whatever he can cash in and run away, similar to Ali Mohamed Gedi and Abdulahi Yusuf. They haven’t left with dignity but shame and disgracefulness, because they bowed to the Ethiopian and anti-Somali demands and they were never faithful to their country, religion and people. Sharif still has some respect within Somali community, however, this was not a gift but he has earned because in the years when he was ICU chairman and his willingness to end to end Somali conflicts by way of reconciliation and persuasion, however, there had been obstacles that neither his government nor himself can remove those obstacles. This requires national unity not the ramshackle that Mr Ould assembled in Djibouti in order to prolong the suffering of Somali people, while our neighboring country are striving for peace and prosperity.
US and Ethiopians wants him to become Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan, who cannot say a word when US drones kills thousands of Afghani children and mother, Somali cannot afford another Hamid Karzai, we have seen Abdullahi Yusuf, and that is enough.
He is a religious person and he is one of the highest among the people only if he maintains his Islamic identity and values and refuses to collaborate those wants to harm Islam and the Muslim. Given what he has been saying in the past few months and his characters, he is more or less collaborated with foreign demands which damaged in some degree damaged his reputation, but has not reach the point of his predecessor. The majority of Somalia can defend him if they would have elected him officially or through acceptable channel, not through US-Ethiopia agendas. Now his opposition groups has genuine reason to be given their turn ruling Somalia, they now control most of the country, they brought law and order in the area they control and the crimes have fallen to almost zero, while the Ethiopian trained polices and military in Mogadishu illegally set road blocks and abducting innocent civilians for ransom. The opposition are gaining momentum by the day, they outnumber the evil forces of AMISOM and those Ethiopian agents, their call for Islamic Sharia is more genuine than Sharif’s call because his own prime minister has defied him along other his incompetent ministers in his government including the one who signed our sea to Kenya.
Western and our neighboring governments do not want us to become strong nation that depends its own people and leaders, they wants us to beg through NGO’s, flee our youth from the country and risks their lives in seas, our children to die for malnutrition, out lives stock to die for diseases, our fisherman’s to be hunted because of few bad guys, our mothers to die without care, our children to grow without education and hope and our religious scholars to kill each other, our business people to be harassed in international airports and our building to remain in ruins. If Sharif has any dignity left in his heart, I’ll ask him to bow the demand of the opposition groups and resign in order to save what is left in Somalia. I believe they would listened to him directly if he choose, but if he continue the US policy of containment and isolation he will probably has few days to survive the onslaught of opposition groups, if their demand is only a national reconciliation in which they would establish a unity government which all Somali people participate without fear of reprisals from the enemy and the same time gather majority of Somali support, I don’t see that will harm to none of us.
I have strong believe that even Opposition would not oppose any commercial deals with Ethiopia if serves our interest, however, this depends restoring our leadership and government foundation, the only way now to restore such government is to have a new government established by our own people, supported by our own people and funded by our own people. As many times stated by the opposition group they are not opposed Sh Sharif personally but his political ideas which is guided through Ethiopia strategy, if they let him to lead two years ago as ICU executive leader, I do have strong believe that still there are chance for improving their relationship, because he still a figure that can have some input how things should be solved and can still rejoin his former allies in their struggle against our historical and dangerous enemy to our existence.
If he cannot work with them just he has to resign and walk away, then he will not be responsible the continuing misery of Somalia, the opposition group will be held accountable if they cannot achieve the mandate that the public will give them, including dealing with Addis Ababa dictator and bring back the dignity of Somalia, including restoring Somali image in abroad. Together we can achieve this if we throw the foreign influence in our conflict. Let us not wait for AU, IGAD, Zenawi and CIA to decide what type of government we can have and what we can't.
Source: Mareeg
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