Monday, May 4, 2009

The piracy fight: What role should the U.S. military play in Somalia?

It’s arguably the most dangerous country in the world and a place that seethes with hostility toward the United States, but as the White House mulls how to deal with Somalia and the pirates who operate there, it must determine whether U.S. troops have a role to play in bringing stability.

If the U.S. military were to get involved, it could be in the form of helping Somalia’s fledgling transitional government build its own security forces — U.S. Africa Command’s specialty.

U.S. troops as trainers with boots on the ground in Somalia?

That would be a disaster, according to some Somalia observers, who contend it would delegitimize in the eyes of the Somalis the very transitional government the U.S. is trying to support.

However, AFRICOM’s deputy for military operations, Vice Adm. Robert T. Moeller, disagrees. While emphasizing that there is no decision or plan at the moment to launch such a training initiative, Moeller said Friday, “I think we can work our way through that and have an ongoing dialogue with the government as well as the population overall.”

For nearly two decades, Somalis have been living in near anarchy: Rival clans and warlords have carved out territory and chaos has opened the door for Islamic extremist groups to put down roots.

While chaos reigns, pirates flourish.

Currently, al-Shabaab, a group of Islamic hard-liners with al-Qaida links, controls portions of the country in the south and central regions. Still, al-Shabaab has been losing some of its influence in the country, particularly after the departure of Ethiopian troops in January.

But, some analysts say, one thing that could make the group more attractive is the perception that outsiders are meddling.

"There is no role for them (the U.S. military) there," said Ken Menkhaus, a Somalia expert from Davidson College near Charlotte, N.C. He calls for more diplomatic engagement in a region long dominated by an emphasis on counterterrorism operations.

Ultimately, any direct involvement by the U.S. military on the ground in Somalia — even if it’s exclusively in the form of training Somali security forces — would have the effect of undermining the fragile unity government in Mogadishu, he said. If the government is going to win broader support among people deeply suspicious of Westerners, then it must not be viewed as a puppet, he said.

Menkhaus also says hitting pirate sanctuaries on shore would have little long-term impact on the problem and could make conditions on the ground worse.

"It would be a windfall for al-Shabaab if we start killing Somalis on Somalian soil. It would drive people to them," Menkhaus said. "Piracy is a second-level security concern compared to the broader first order (terrorist) threat."

Indirectly, a strike "could make us less secure," because it would attract people to the more extreme elements, he said.

Diplomatic focus

While Moeller is more optimistic about the military’s ability, if called upon, to work effectively with the government, he concurs that the main focus must be on the diplomatic side. If the Somali government requested support with military training it would have to be done in conjunction with strong diplomatic outreach, Moeller said.

"They (the transitional government) do need the support of the international community. I think it’s essential they get that support," he said, referring to needed assistance in areas such as funding of infrastructure improvements.

"The reason we face the piracy challenge is there’s no alternative in the economy," Moeller said. "Developing that economic base is essential."

At a U.N. donor’s conference last month in Brussels, more than $200 million was pledged to support security initiatives in Somalia. The funds will be directed toward the African Union’s peacekeeping forces and support the development and training of a Somali security force.

Though the command is new, AFRICOM already has started to build a track record with its training partnerships around the continent, helping African countries professionalize their security forces and develop coast guards. It remains to be seen whether AFRICOM will play a similar role down the road in Somalia.

Long-term endeavors

In the meantime, the scourge of piracy persists in the Gulf of Aden. While everyone from State Department officials, to military leaders and Somali scholars say the solution is an economic and political matter, bringing about those types of reforms are complicated long-term endeavors.

And though navies from around the world continue to patrol the waters off Somalia, military might alone has proved incapable of eliminating the young bandits who continue to strike with impunity.

In April, Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. Central Command, told a congressional panel that shipping companies needed to do more to protect their ships and should consider hiring armed security.

To put the limits of naval power into context, at least 80 commercial cargo ships have been attacked in the area off the coasts of Somalia and bordering Kenya and in the Gulf of Aden, an area equal to more than 1.1 million square miles, roughly four times the size of Texas or the size of the Mediterranean and Red seas combined, according to www.navy.mil, the official Web site of the U.S. Navy. At least 19 of those attacks have resulted in successful highjackings, which is just a drop in the bucket when compared against the 19,000 ships that pass through the region each year.

But while the industry wrestles with the issue of arming its crews, shippers actually have bigger concerns that could make such dramatic steps unlikely.

"The underlying metrics of the industry have little or nothing to do with piracy off the coast of Somalia," said Nathan Hughes, a military analyst for STRATFOR, a Texas-based global intelligence company.

With world trade plummeting because of the economic crisis, coupled with a sharp increase in the number of newly constructed cargo vessels set to become operational this year, many shippers are in a financial bind.

"The industry is facing a perfect storm. They’re getting hit from two sides before we even talk about piracy," Hughes said. "Ultimately, it’s a business decision for them (to hire security guards)," Hughes said. "It’s hard for them to focus on piracy with the small amount of attrition right now off the coast of Somalia."

Status quo

For the near future, it will likely be status quo with the pirates, Hughes said.

"There’s a clear sense that the Pentagon remains committed to keeping a lid on the problem rather than solving the problem. There aren’t a lot of good options and everybody has other priorities. There’s a reason Somalia has gone unsolved for so long," he said.

While the pirates continue to capture the world’s attention, there is growing concern about insurgents traveling into East Africa. Somalia press reports state that some of those foreign fighters could be lining up with al-Shabaab, which is making threats to launch attacks into Kenya.

"My great worry is not that Shabaab is going to take Somalia. Somalis are pushing back against Shabaab," Menkhaus said. "My worry is that they’ll try to globalize what they’re doing by attacking neighbors.

"When it’s Somalis against foreigners they (al-Shabaab) win. They have every reason to take it across the borders."

As the new administration crafts its policy on Somalia, Moeller said officials at AFRICOM continue to monitor the range of threats around East Africa.

"It is something that is a matter of some concern because of the potential for it to cause further instability," Moeller said. "It is an issue we pay very close attention to."

Source: Stars and Stripes

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